Bolsonaro Leads Lula; Brazil Heads to Runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.16%, the Superior Electoral Court reported with 99.99% of ballots counted, forcing an October 25, 2026 runoff. Bolsonaro received about 56.1 million votes, roughly 2.2 million more than Lula. Neither secured a majority. In Brasília, Bolsonaro told reporters and supporters the results signaled the end of the Workers’ Party era. Lula acknowledged the unexpected deficit and vowed to contest the second round. Flávio, 45, is a Liberal Party senator from Rio de Janeiro running with Alfredo Gaspar; his father, Jair Bolsonaro, governed 2019–2022, lost to Lula in 2022, was convicted of plotting a coup, and is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest. Lula, 80, seeks a fourth non-consecutive term for the Workers’ Party. Augusto Cury finished third with about 3.4 million votes and declined to endorse either candidate. Reuters reported Brazil’s public debt past 82% of GDP, with government forecasts of 2% growth in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027.