On September 27, 2026 Kpler reported Middle East crude exports at 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the Iran war began in February. The data, cited by Reuters, put Strait of Hormuz exports at about 7.4 million bpd. Saudi exports were projected at 5.4 million bpd, up from 2.446 million in August, after attacks damaged the East-West Pipeline and shipments shifted from Yanbu. Ras Tanura loadings rose to about 3.6 million bpd from 929,000 in August. Nineteen VLCCs, each with about 2 million barrels of Saudi oil, exited Hormuz in the past week. Reuters said: "This rebound is due to the recovery of crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz." It added that after Saudi pipelines were attacked by Houthi rebels in Yemen, Saudi oil exports increased elsewhere. Nikkei said tankers with AIS off are supporting supply and that "International oil prices have not surged to the $150 level that was feared at the beginning of the war." Asia Business Daily tied an earlier drop to the US-Iran ceasefire MOU collapse in early July 2026 and renewed Saudi-Houthi conflict. Coverage is based on the same Kpler dataset; estimates may omit AIS-dark vessels. Regional exports remained about 6 million bpd below February's 18.8 million. Before the war about 125 large commercial vessels passed Hormuz daily, about one-fifth of global crude and LNG supply.
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What each side asserts, disputes — or leaves out entirely.
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Readers and the coverage both lean left on this one.
Recovering to 12.8 million barrels is progress, but security threats will keep prices volatile until infrastructure is fixed.
Saudi and UAE boosting output helps, yet the six million barrel shortfall shows the war's damage lingers on global markets.
It's good news that shipments are up through Hormuz again, but those ongoing attacks mean we're still far from normal supply.
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