The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous vote, its first hike since 2023. Kevin Warsh said the Fed "removed a dose of accommodation so that financial and credit conditions would be more consistent with our ultimate objectives" and "Today's action starts to show we're serious about this, and we will deliver on the price stability objective." The Dow fell more than 630 points (1.2%) to 51,461.90 Wednesday. U.S. futures and Asian and European markets rose Thursday. Trump publicly criticized the Fed decision and Warsh as politically motivated. August CPI rose 3.4%, above the 2% target. Most policymakers expect at least one more hike this year; traders see October odds at 50:50. The Bank of England held at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote. Oil eased. Russ Mould said the measured reaction reflected how widely expected the move was. Susannah Streeter said yields dipped as investors took comfort from the Fed standing firm against Trump's demands for lower rates. Contested: Stephen Innes said that language is not of a bank that has completed the job; the hike removed a credibility question and opened how much tightening remains. Christian Scherrmann said the motive was credibility given bond pricing and oil, and Warsh's optimistic outlook may be music to many ears. Further steps stay open.
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Oil prices dropping helps ease some pressure but I doubt this cautious rally lasts if tightening keeps going across regions.
BoE keeping rates steady while flagging energy shocks feels right for now though it risks pushing up costs for everyone later.
The Fed hike was no surprise but markets holding up shows investors are betting inflation peaks soon despite the warnings.
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